Israel is voting today. The polls opened this morning and the early picture on participation is striking: turnout had reached 16.7 percent of eligible voters by 10 a.m. local time, with roughly 1.2 million ballots cast. The Central Elections Committee calls that the highest figure at that hour since at least 1996. Final unofficial results won’t arrive until Wednesday at the earliest. Official certified tallies aren’t due until November 4.
This is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid for re-election after October 7 and after eight months of war with Iran. His opponent, Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar coalition, led in every pre-election poll. The last head-to-head surveys put Eisenkot ahead 49 to 41. The opposition bloc was projected at about 54 Knesset seats, Netanyahu’s bloc at about 49.5, with 61 needed to form a government. Neither bloc is at 61. The question isn’t just who finishes ahead. It’s whether either coalition can cobble together enough smaller parties to reach the threshold before the negotiations collapse.
Thirty-six lists are competing. A list needs 3.25 percent of valid votes to win any seats. One to watch is Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, which was polling around 2.9 percent, just below the cutoff. If it clears the threshold, it could be a kingmaker in a close parliament. If it doesn’t, those votes vanish entirely and the seat math shifts for everyone else. Exit polls are expected at 10 p.m. local time, Israel time.
Israel has been here before. Between April 2019 and March 2021, the country held four elections in less than two years because neither bloc could reach 61 and form a stable government. The third election, in March 2020, produced a near-tie, 58 seats to 62. The fourth finally produced a functioning government after six months of caretaker status. Netanyahu is asking voters to return him to power at the end of a war his government fought after October 7. Whether the voters who turned out in record early numbers will answer that the way he hopes is something nobody will know tonight. (Times of Israel is tracking turnout and posting results as they come in.)
Two days ago, in Serbia, something that used to be considered ordinary and has lately become less so: an election was held, a strongman lost, and he conceded.
Serbia held a snap parliamentary election on Sunday. The Student List, a movement that grew out of months of street protests against President Aleksandar Vucic, won 52.54 percent of the vote, according to the Republic Election Commission’s count with more than 96 percent of polling stations processed. Vucic’s United Serbia list received 39.29 percent. Projected seat distribution gives the Student List approximately 140 seats in the 250-seat parliament, enough for a majority on its own. Turnout was 68.85 percent, the highest in decades. Vucic conceded on election night.
The students had been in the streets since late 2024, after a concrete canopy collapsed at a railway station in Novi Sad and killed 16 people. They held the government responsible. They organized, they marched, they put together a political party, and on Sunday they won an outright majority in the parliament of a country that has been under Vucic’s control for more than fourteen years. Coalition talks begin now. A new government hasn’t been named yet. Forming one will take time.
In October 2000, Slobodan Milosevic was driven from power by street protests after losing an election he tried to manipulate. A student group called Otpor, meaning resistance, was central to those protests. It took twenty-six years for Serbia to produce another election that reshuffled its fundamental political order. The Student List hasn’t named a prime minister yet. That part comes next. For now the result stands: 52.54 percent, 140 seats, and Vucic on television conceding. (Euronews has the full result and Vucic’s concession statement.)
On the same day Serbia went to the polls, Brazil held its presidential runoff. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won his fourth term as Brazil’s president, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro by approximately 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s electoral court. With more than 96 percent of ballots counted, Lula was above 51 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro above 48. Bolsonaro has rejected the result. A Supreme Court justice’s decision to extend voting by two hours may form the basis of a legal challenge. Lula’s fourth term begins January 5, 2027.
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, had led the first round on October 4 with about 47 percent to Lula’s 45 percent, and polls going into the runoff showed the race tightening significantly. The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for his role in the January 2023 attempted coup. The result on Sunday is the first time since the restoration of civilian rule in 1985 that the candidate who finished second in the first round came back to win the presidency. (NPR confirmed the result; CBS News has Bolsonaro’s rejection statement.)
Seven days remain before the November 3 midterms. The Senate forecasts haven’t moved much. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats 57 percent odds of taking the chamber, Kalshi 63 percent, Poliwave 57 percent. PollsMax still sits at 61.4 percent for Republicans. A 24-point spread between the leading models isn’t unusual for races this close, but it’s wider than forecasters usually like at this stage.
On the Iran front, the diplomatic channel remains open. Messages are still passing through third-party intermediaries between Washington and Tehran, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Reports over the weekend described a shift in US posture toward diplomacy ahead of the midterms. Brent crude held above $110 per barrel through Monday. A deal hasn’t been reached. The war is eight months old. The question of what changes in the diplomatic calculus the morning after November 3 is one nobody has answered publicly yet.
Diplomatic pressure ahead of American elections has a long history. In October 1980, Jimmy Carter’s inability to free 52 American hostages held in Iran before Election Day was a defining factor in his loss to Ronald Reagan. The pattern of October military and diplomatic activity preceding major elections is old enough to have its own name. What it doesn’t always have is a clean resolution. (Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast updates continuously through Election Day.)
Something good.
Thursday is when the shooting is supposed to stop. Russia and Ukraine agreed last week to a temporary ceasefire in and around Oleshky, a city of roughly 2,000 people in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast. The city has had no electricity for months. Food and medicine are critically low. Volunteers who reached the area reported deaths from starvation. Nearly 50 children are among those remaining.
The ceasefire is scheduled to begin Thursday, October 29, according to the White House statement that announced the arrangement. It was brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump. The agreement calls for a temporary halt in military activity to allow humanitarian aid to enter through a designated safe corridor and civilians to evacuate. Ukraine’s ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, confirmed the deal and said the operation will proceed in stages, with residents able to choose whether to head toward Ukrainian-controlled territory or toward Russia.
The broader war doesn’t have a ceasefire. It isn’t close to one. But in Oleshky, on Thursday, an agreement between two military commands says the guns will stop long enough for people to receive food and to leave if they want to. That’s not peace. It’s one city and one Thursday. But the 2,000 people who’ve been there through the winter without power are counting it. (The White House announced the Oleshky ceasefire and evacuation plan; Liga.net has the October 29 start date.)
Howard Fenn writes The Day, Monday through Saturday.
