France woke Sunday to a second consecutive weekend of mass demonstrations that were smaller by the government’s count and less violent by nearly every measure the government tracks (Euronews). The Interior Ministry reported 1,314 arrests by Sunday morning, a provisional figure it said would rise as investigations continue. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez described Saturday as a security success and said the marches had “gone well.” The government counted 410,000 demonstrators nationwide, including 110,000 in Paris. The CGT labor federation put the figure near 800,000. Fifty-three security officers were injured. Firefighters responded to 75 fires.
The previous Saturday, October 17, produced a final arrest count of 2,628 and more than 1,100 injured security personnel, along with a burned town hall in Limoges and widespread looting in central Paris. Saturday’s deployment of 70,000 police and gendarmerie constrained but didn’t extinguish the disorder. The ministry reported 24 shops looted nationwide (The News).
The CGT has called a nationwide work stoppage for November 5. In 2023, France sustained five months of street protests over pension reform. The Borne government held the legislation through all of it. Protests ended without changing the law. What the 2023 experience tells you is that French governments can hold under sustained pressure, and also that it can take months to find out. (France 24 has the full government assessment and Saturday’s final figures.)
Russia and Ukraine agreed Friday to a localized ceasefire in Oleshky, an occupied city in Kherson Oblast where an estimated 2,000 residents remain with critically limited food and medicine. The White House said the agreement was brokered with help from Melania Trump and would allow civilians to evacuate and humanitarian aid to enter. NBC News and the Kyiv Independent both reported the deal; the outlets differed on when the ceasefire would begin, with dates given as October 27 and October 29.
A ceasefire in one city is not a ceasefire in the war. On the broader diplomatic track, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to technical-level talks in the first half of November, with Abu Dhabi or Switzerland as possible venues. Zelensky said he hopes those talks lead to a leaders’ meeting. The Kremlin continues to reject any pause in hostilities short of a comprehensive agreement on Russian terms, which include territorial concessions Ukraine has refused. Washington and Kyiv remain publicly at odds over Starlink restrictions affecting Ukrainian military operations. (MPR News reported Saturday on the Oleshky agreement and November talks planning.)
Trump told reporters Sunday there would be no US strike on Iran that day. He said he was keeping a deal option open, telling reporters: “I’m going to make a great deal.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Sunday that messages were still being passed to the United States through third-party intermediaries. US Central Command’s commander flew over the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as a visible signal of American presence. The Houthis claimed over the weekend to have targeted Riyadh’s airport and Saudi naval and air bases. Brent crude traded above $110 per barrel.
The war is eight months old. Ambassador Barrack’s statement Friday that the United States “absolutely” could strike Iran “this weekend” passed without a strike. The diplomatic channel via intermediaries is still open. The question of when Congress decides its legal role in an eight-month conflict is one Bob Whitfield looked at in May, when the Senate came one vote short of invoking the War Powers Resolution for the seventh time. (Business Standard reported Sunday on Iran’s intermediary communications and the diplomacy.)
Israel votes tomorrow, Tuesday, October 27. The election is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid for re-election in a contest framed around his handling of the October 7 aftermath and the eight-month war with Iran. His main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, leads him 49 to 41 percent in final head-to-head polling. The most recent poll aggregate puts the opposition bloc at 54 Knesset seats and Netanyahu’s bloc at 49.5, with 61 needed to form a government (The Jerusalem Post).
Neither bloc is projected to reach that threshold. One variable still in play is Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, polling at approximately 2.9 percent against a 3.25 percent minimum to win any seats. Israeli coalition negotiations following an inconclusive result have historically run from a few weeks to more than a year; between 2019 and 2021, Israel held four elections in less than two years before forming a stable government. Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a new coalition is sworn in. (The Jerusalem Post’s election tracker has current polling averages and seat projections.)
Eight days remain before the November 3 midterms. The leading forecasters don’t agree on the margin, but most give Democrats the edge on Senate control. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 56 percent chance. Kalshi’s prediction market puts them at 63 percent. Poliwave’s simulation model runs at 57 percent. PollsMax remains the outlier, giving Republicans 61.4 percent. That’s a 24-point spread across the leading models, which is wide for the final stretch of a cycle. The House looks less contested in the aggregate: Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats 79 percent and Polymarket gives them 92 percent.
The Texas Senate race is where most of the national attention has landed. Kalshi puts Democrat James Talarico at 65 percent. Poliwave rates it nearly a toss-up, projecting 50.1 percent for Talarico against Ken Paxton’s 49.9. NBC’s battleground tracker shows narrow Democratic leads in Michigan, Ohio, and Maine, with Kansas Republican Roger Marshall at 48 percent against Democrat Adam Hamilton’s 47 in that state. Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the US Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won re-election in 1988, a stretch of 38 years. (Decision Desk HQ’s forecast model updates continuously through election day.)
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reached 9,735 confirmed cases and 4,690 deaths as of October 21, according to the CDC. That makes it the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record, spreading faster than any previous outbreak by the agency’s assessment. The strain is Bundibugyo, for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment. Kenya has confirmed nine cases and one death. Uganda has 20 confirmed cases and this week imposed a 21-day quarantine on all returnees from the DRC. France has reported one case.
Nigeria’s patient, a 42-year-old woman who returned to Abuja from Uganda on October 3, saw her condition improve considerably as of October 24, per the National Centre for Disease Control’s situation report. The number of contacts under monitoring increased to 53. Her source of exposure remains under investigation by the World Health Organization. The WHO’s international public health emergency declaration, issued in May, remains in effect. (ContagionLive tracked the DRC outbreak’s total case count and its place in the historical record.)
Something good.
Super Typhoon Champi, which peaked at sustained winds of 296 kilometers per hour on October 21 as it moved toward Taiwan’s 23 million people, weakened into a tropical storm over the weekend. Japan had canceled more than 100 flights before the storm reached Okinawa, and the Japan Self-Defense Forces deployed in advance. Saturday’s passage knocked out power to 13,000 households on Okinawa, snapped trees on Ishigaki Island, and injured a woman in Miyako when strong winds knocked her down. No deaths were reported in Japan. The storm continued weakening as it moved toward China. A system that looked like the worst typhoon of the year five days ago left Okinawa with a power outage and a road to clear. Preparation isn’t a story that gets covered the way damage does. When it works, it should be. (The Star Malaysia tracked the storm’s weakening path toward China.)
Howard Fenn writes The Day, Monday through Saturday.
