French authorities deployed 70,000 police and gendarmerie across the country Saturday for what organizers have called “Act II” of the Yellow Vest movement, with more than 640 demonstrations planned nationwide, including 455 marches, 85 roundabout protests, 32 railway station gatherings, and 15 toll-booth blockades. The CGT labor union called on its 600,000 members to join. In Paris, authorities banned the central Yellow Vest march route; organizers said they’d challenge it in court. The CGT’s route, initially from Bastille to Nation, was moved by the police prefecture at the last minute to Porte d’Italie to Porte de Vincennes.
Last Saturday, October 17, brought approximately 550,000 people into the streets by the government’s count and as many as 800,000 by the organizers’. By the end of that day, 2,397 people had been arrested, nearly 1,000 police and security personnel had been injured, and the town hall in Limoges had been burned. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez offered his resignation afterward. President Macron rejected it and said protests were being “exploited politically.” Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu made no changes to the fuel and cost-of-living budget measures that touched off the demonstrations.
In 2023, France sustained five months of protests over pension reform, with marches, strikes, and sustained street pressure. Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne’s government held the legislation. The protests ended without changing the outcome. That history runs in two directions: the government held, which is a reason to think a government might hold again; but it held after months of sustained pressure, not after one week. Which precedent matters most depends on how many more Saturdays come. (France 24 is running a live blog on today’s demonstrations.)
Russia struck Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Thursday night, targeting the Zhytomyr, Volyn, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, and Rivne regions. Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said more than 500,000 households lost power. Ukraine described the attack as 21 ballistic missiles launched in three waves, with three carrying cluster munitions, hitting two thermal power plants and three substations.
The strikes came twelve days after the United States announced an energy ceasefire between the two sides. Zelensky said Ukraine observed the pause for three days and then resumed attacks on Russian energy infrastructure after Russia continued hitting Ukrainian power facilities. An energy ceasefire that holds for three days and then doesn’t is a different kind of document than one that holds.
On the diplomatic track: Putin told Russian state television he’s ready to resume US-mediated talks in November. Zelensky said he hopes the first face-to-face talks since February take place in early November and that Ukraine needs “strong security guarantees, not just paper ones.” Steve Witkoff described “some degree of momentum.” The Kremlin separately issued a statement expressing doubts about the process. None of that combination is unusual by the standards of active-war negotiations. (The Kyiv Independent covered Thursday’s grid strikes and the current state of the talks.)
US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said Friday that the United States “absolutely” could strike Iran “this weekend.” Trump, at a rally in Florida on Thursday, threatened to resume military operations if Tehran won’t negotiate. Neither statement is an order. Both were made publicly by people in relevant positions in the same week the administration had previously said nothing would happen before November 3.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps struck four additional tankers in the Persian Gulf this week that were conducting oil transfers. Iran has also threatened to attack American bases in the region if US forces continue escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Ambassador to the United Nations said publicly this week that the war with Iran could last another year. Brent crude is trading above $110 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is still open. Those two facts don’t point in the same direction forever. (US Ambassador Barrack made the “this weekend” statement in remarks Friday; Arutz Sheva reported them.)
Ten days remain before the November 3 midterms. A University of Houston poll conducted October 10 through 14 put Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 46 percent in the Texas Senate race, within the poll’s 2.9-point margin of error. A University of Texas Austin poll from October 14 showed Talarico at 50, Paxton at 47. Talarico leads among independents 60 to 32 in both surveys.
Prediction markets have moved since last week. Kalshi and Polymarket now put Democrats at 68 percent to take Senate control, up from 64 and 63 percent a week ago. The forecast models are less aligned: Poliwave puts Democrats at 55 percent; Pollsmax puts Republicans at 61.9 percent. That’s a wider spread between models than is typical at this stage of a cycle.
Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988. (Fox 7 Austin covered the University of Houston poll and the current state of the race.)
Israel holds its general election on Tuesday, October 27. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking re-election in a vote Bloomberg has described as a referendum on the longest-serving prime minister in the country’s history. His main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party is polling ahead or tied with Likud in most surveys. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are running on a joint list.
Neither bloc is currently projected to reach 61 seats, the threshold for a governing coalition in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in. The campaign’s central issues are his handling of the October 7 attacks, the Iran war now in its eighth month, and corruption charges he denies. The October 7 commission issued initial findings in August; Netanyahu rejected them publicly. (The Times of Israel has a regularly updated explainer on the election and the current polling.)
Nigeria confirmed its first case of the ongoing Ebola outbreak on October 20. The patient is a woman in Abuja who arrived from Uganda, with exposure believed to have occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo. She developed symptoms on October 7 and was admitted to a private hospital in Abuja on October 11. Nigerian health officials said 44 contacts are being traced.
The current strain is Bundibugyo, a variant with a fatality rate of approximately 50 percent for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment. The broader DRC outbreak has been underway since late spring; the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May, a designation it also applied to mpox in 2022 and 2024. The DRC outbreak has produced more than 4,000 deaths. Kenya has recorded nine confirmed infections. The Africa CDC director said the spread into Nigeria represents “a serious threat.”
No confirmed cases have been identified outside Africa. The 44 contacts being traced in Abuja are the current perimeter. (The Associated Press covered Nigeria’s confirmation; Oregon Public Broadcasting distributed the report.)
Something good.
Super Typhoon Champi peaked at sustained winds of 296 kilometers per hour on October 21. Its forecast track had the storm making a direct strike on Taiwan, an island of 23 million people. The track shifted north. Taiwan received heavy rain through Friday, flight cancellations on the Taiwan-Okinawa routes, and closed tourist sites. It didn’t receive a direct hit from a super typhoon.
The storm is now moving toward Kyushu and Okinawa, where Japanese authorities have issued warnings. Those warnings are the appropriate response to where the track is now pointed. Taiwan having 23 million people who won’t be in the path of a storm that was forecast to hit them is also a thing that happened.
Not every near miss makes the news. This one should. (AccuWeather and the Khaleej Times tracked Champi’s track shift and the Taiwan outcome.)
Howard Fenn writes The Day, Monday through Saturday.
